Verification of global and regional NWP models over South America
- Autores
- De Elia, Ramon; Haiden, Thomas; Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana; Otero, Federico; Gascón, Estíbaliz; Castro, Lucía; Magnusson, Linus; Godoy, Alejandro; Coelho, Caio; Bechis, Hernán; Casati, Barbara; D Amen, Daniela Lilian; Frassoni, Ariane; Galgano, Santiago; Osman, Marisol; Osores, María Soledad; Righetti, Silvina Andrea; Salio, Paola Veronica; Saucedo, Marcos Adolfo; Garcia Skabar, Yanina; Spennemann, Pablo Cristian; Stell, José Luis; Wedi, Nils
- Año de publicación
- 2025
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- South America has received less attention from the global numerical weather prediction community than many other regions. This is reflected, for example, in its absence as a region in the standardised WMO verification score exchange. As a result, global modelling centres may have missed out on interesting scientific challenges, and potential insights, in a unique testing ground in one of the few land masses in the Southern Hemisphere. To address this situation, a pilot project was launched in early 2024 by the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) and the Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR), partly in response to the requirements of the United Nations Early Warnings for All initiative (EW4All). This pilot project, led by the Argentine National Meteorological Service (SMN) and the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMWF), aims to explore the performance of global and regional forecasts over South America and their potential as early warning tools. For the sake of simplicity, we have focused mainly on the territory of Argentina and on deterministic operational forecasts. This Technical Memorandum presents the first results of the pilot project, focusing on two perspectives: a general statistical verification of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) control operational forecast, and an in-depth evaluation of model performance in three individual High Impact Weather (HIW) events which, due to their characteristics, are both of societal relevance and posing a challenge to models. Within the first perspective, temporally and/or spatially aggregated summary verification statistics are produced for upper air variables by comparing forecasts with their own analysis, and for surface variables by comparing surface forecast fields with SYNOP station data. In addition, the IFS deterministic operational forecast is compared with other global models and with a limited area model over the South America region. Within the second perspective, three individual case studies covering HIW events with very different characteristics are analysed: a convective storm causing severe wind damage and loss of life, a strong Zonda wind (Foehn) on the lee side of the Andes, and a prolonged heat wave.
Fil: De Elia, Ramon. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina
Fil: Haiden, Thomas. European Centre For Medium Range Forecasting; Reino Unido
Fil: Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina
Fil: Otero, Federico. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Gascón, Estíbaliz. European Centre For Medium Range Forecasting; Reino Unido
Fil: Castro, Lucía. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina
Fil: Magnusson, Linus. European Centre For Medium Range Forecasting; Reino Unido
Fil: Godoy, Alejandro. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina
Fil: Coelho, Caio. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: Bechis, Hernán. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Casati, Barbara. Environment And Climate Change Canada; Canadá
Fil: D Amen, Daniela Lilian. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina
Fil: Frassoni, Ariane. Environment And Climate Change Canada; Canadá
Fil: Galgano, Santiago. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina
Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Osores, María Soledad. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina
Fil: Righetti, Silvina Andrea. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Salio, Paola Veronica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Saucedo, Marcos Adolfo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina
Fil: Garcia Skabar, Yanina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina
Fil: Spennemann, Pablo Cristian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina
Fil: Stell, José Luis. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina
Fil: Wedi, Nils. European Centre For Medium Range Forecasting; Reino Unido - Materia
-
REGIONAL MODELS
SOUTH AMERICA
VERIFICATION - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
.jpg)
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/290754
Ver los metadatos del registro completo
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Verification of global and regional NWP models over South AmericaDe Elia, RamonHaiden, ThomasMatsudo, Cynthia MarianaOtero, FedericoGascón, EstíbalizCastro, LucíaMagnusson, LinusGodoy, AlejandroCoelho, CaioBechis, HernánCasati, BarbaraD Amen, Daniela LilianFrassoni, ArianeGalgano, SantiagoOsman, MarisolOsores, María SoledadRighetti, Silvina AndreaSalio, Paola VeronicaSaucedo, Marcos AdolfoGarcia Skabar, YaninaSpennemann, Pablo CristianStell, José LuisWedi, NilsREGIONAL MODELSSOUTH AMERICAVERIFICATIONhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1South America has received less attention from the global numerical weather prediction community than many other regions. This is reflected, for example, in its absence as a region in the standardised WMO verification score exchange. As a result, global modelling centres may have missed out on interesting scientific challenges, and potential insights, in a unique testing ground in one of the few land masses in the Southern Hemisphere. To address this situation, a pilot project was launched in early 2024 by the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) and the Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR), partly in response to the requirements of the United Nations Early Warnings for All initiative (EW4All). This pilot project, led by the Argentine National Meteorological Service (SMN) and the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMWF), aims to explore the performance of global and regional forecasts over South America and their potential as early warning tools. For the sake of simplicity, we have focused mainly on the territory of Argentina and on deterministic operational forecasts. This Technical Memorandum presents the first results of the pilot project, focusing on two perspectives: a general statistical verification of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) control operational forecast, and an in-depth evaluation of model performance in three individual High Impact Weather (HIW) events which, due to their characteristics, are both of societal relevance and posing a challenge to models. Within the first perspective, temporally and/or spatially aggregated summary verification statistics are produced for upper air variables by comparing forecasts with their own analysis, and for surface variables by comparing surface forecast fields with SYNOP station data. In addition, the IFS deterministic operational forecast is compared with other global models and with a limited area model over the South America region. Within the second perspective, three individual case studies covering HIW events with very different characteristics are analysed: a convective storm causing severe wind damage and loss of life, a strong Zonda wind (Foehn) on the lee side of the Andes, and a prolonged heat wave.Fil: De Elia, Ramon. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Haiden, Thomas. European Centre For Medium Range Forecasting; Reino UnidoFil: Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Otero, Federico. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Gascón, Estíbaliz. European Centre For Medium Range Forecasting; Reino UnidoFil: Castro, Lucía. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Magnusson, Linus. European Centre For Medium Range Forecasting; Reino UnidoFil: Godoy, Alejandro. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Coelho, Caio. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Bechis, Hernán. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Casati, Barbara. Environment And Climate Change Canada; CanadáFil: D Amen, Daniela Lilian. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Frassoni, Ariane. Environment And Climate Change Canada; CanadáFil: Galgano, Santiago. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Osores, María Soledad. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Righetti, Silvina Andrea. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Salio, Paola Veronica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Saucedo, Marcos Adolfo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Garcia Skabar, Yanina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Spennemann, Pablo Cristian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Stell, José Luis. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Wedi, Nils. European Centre For Medium Range Forecasting; Reino UnidoEuropean Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts2025-06info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/290754De Elia, Ramon; Haiden, Thomas; Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana; Otero, Federico; Gascón, Estíbaliz ; et al.; Verification of global and regional NWP models over South America; European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts; European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting; 928; 6-2025; 1-401012-6899CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/81664-verification-global-and-regional-nwp-models-over-south-americainfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.21957/85fc99659cinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2026-08-25T15:50:26Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/290754instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982026-08-25 15:50:26.444CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Verification of global and regional NWP models over South America |
| title |
Verification of global and regional NWP models over South America |
| spellingShingle |
Verification of global and regional NWP models over South America De Elia, Ramon REGIONAL MODELS SOUTH AMERICA VERIFICATION |
| title_short |
Verification of global and regional NWP models over South America |
| title_full |
Verification of global and regional NWP models over South America |
| title_fullStr |
Verification of global and regional NWP models over South America |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Verification of global and regional NWP models over South America |
| title_sort |
Verification of global and regional NWP models over South America |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
De Elia, Ramon Haiden, Thomas Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana Otero, Federico Gascón, Estíbaliz Castro, Lucía Magnusson, Linus Godoy, Alejandro Coelho, Caio Bechis, Hernán Casati, Barbara D Amen, Daniela Lilian Frassoni, Ariane Galgano, Santiago Osman, Marisol Osores, María Soledad Righetti, Silvina Andrea Salio, Paola Veronica Saucedo, Marcos Adolfo Garcia Skabar, Yanina Spennemann, Pablo Cristian Stell, José Luis Wedi, Nils |
| author |
De Elia, Ramon |
| author_facet |
De Elia, Ramon Haiden, Thomas Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana Otero, Federico Gascón, Estíbaliz Castro, Lucía Magnusson, Linus Godoy, Alejandro Coelho, Caio Bechis, Hernán Casati, Barbara D Amen, Daniela Lilian Frassoni, Ariane Galgano, Santiago Osman, Marisol Osores, María Soledad Righetti, Silvina Andrea Salio, Paola Veronica Saucedo, Marcos Adolfo Garcia Skabar, Yanina Spennemann, Pablo Cristian Stell, José Luis Wedi, Nils |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Haiden, Thomas Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana Otero, Federico Gascón, Estíbaliz Castro, Lucía Magnusson, Linus Godoy, Alejandro Coelho, Caio Bechis, Hernán Casati, Barbara D Amen, Daniela Lilian Frassoni, Ariane Galgano, Santiago Osman, Marisol Osores, María Soledad Righetti, Silvina Andrea Salio, Paola Veronica Saucedo, Marcos Adolfo Garcia Skabar, Yanina Spennemann, Pablo Cristian Stell, José Luis Wedi, Nils |
| author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
REGIONAL MODELS SOUTH AMERICA VERIFICATION |
| topic |
REGIONAL MODELS SOUTH AMERICA VERIFICATION |
| purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
| dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
South America has received less attention from the global numerical weather prediction community than many other regions. This is reflected, for example, in its absence as a region in the standardised WMO verification score exchange. As a result, global modelling centres may have missed out on interesting scientific challenges, and potential insights, in a unique testing ground in one of the few land masses in the Southern Hemisphere. To address this situation, a pilot project was launched in early 2024 by the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) and the Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR), partly in response to the requirements of the United Nations Early Warnings for All initiative (EW4All). This pilot project, led by the Argentine National Meteorological Service (SMN) and the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMWF), aims to explore the performance of global and regional forecasts over South America and their potential as early warning tools. For the sake of simplicity, we have focused mainly on the territory of Argentina and on deterministic operational forecasts. This Technical Memorandum presents the first results of the pilot project, focusing on two perspectives: a general statistical verification of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) control operational forecast, and an in-depth evaluation of model performance in three individual High Impact Weather (HIW) events which, due to their characteristics, are both of societal relevance and posing a challenge to models. Within the first perspective, temporally and/or spatially aggregated summary verification statistics are produced for upper air variables by comparing forecasts with their own analysis, and for surface variables by comparing surface forecast fields with SYNOP station data. In addition, the IFS deterministic operational forecast is compared with other global models and with a limited area model over the South America region. Within the second perspective, three individual case studies covering HIW events with very different characteristics are analysed: a convective storm causing severe wind damage and loss of life, a strong Zonda wind (Foehn) on the lee side of the Andes, and a prolonged heat wave. Fil: De Elia, Ramon. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina Fil: Haiden, Thomas. European Centre For Medium Range Forecasting; Reino Unido Fil: Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina Fil: Otero, Federico. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina Fil: Gascón, Estíbaliz. European Centre For Medium Range Forecasting; Reino Unido Fil: Castro, Lucía. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina Fil: Magnusson, Linus. European Centre For Medium Range Forecasting; Reino Unido Fil: Godoy, Alejandro. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina Fil: Coelho, Caio. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil Fil: Bechis, Hernán. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina Fil: Casati, Barbara. Environment And Climate Change Canada; Canadá Fil: D Amen, Daniela Lilian. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina Fil: Frassoni, Ariane. Environment And Climate Change Canada; Canadá Fil: Galgano, Santiago. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina Fil: Osores, María Soledad. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina Fil: Righetti, Silvina Andrea. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina Fil: Salio, Paola Veronica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina Fil: Saucedo, Marcos Adolfo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina Fil: Garcia Skabar, Yanina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina Fil: Spennemann, Pablo Cristian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina Fil: Stell, José Luis. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina Fil: Wedi, Nils. European Centre For Medium Range Forecasting; Reino Unido |
| description |
South America has received less attention from the global numerical weather prediction community than many other regions. This is reflected, for example, in its absence as a region in the standardised WMO verification score exchange. As a result, global modelling centres may have missed out on interesting scientific challenges, and potential insights, in a unique testing ground in one of the few land masses in the Southern Hemisphere. To address this situation, a pilot project was launched in early 2024 by the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) and the Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR), partly in response to the requirements of the United Nations Early Warnings for All initiative (EW4All). This pilot project, led by the Argentine National Meteorological Service (SMN) and the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMWF), aims to explore the performance of global and regional forecasts over South America and their potential as early warning tools. For the sake of simplicity, we have focused mainly on the territory of Argentina and on deterministic operational forecasts. This Technical Memorandum presents the first results of the pilot project, focusing on two perspectives: a general statistical verification of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) control operational forecast, and an in-depth evaluation of model performance in three individual High Impact Weather (HIW) events which, due to their characteristics, are both of societal relevance and posing a challenge to models. Within the first perspective, temporally and/or spatially aggregated summary verification statistics are produced for upper air variables by comparing forecasts with their own analysis, and for surface variables by comparing surface forecast fields with SYNOP station data. In addition, the IFS deterministic operational forecast is compared with other global models and with a limited area model over the South America region. Within the second perspective, three individual case studies covering HIW events with very different characteristics are analysed: a convective storm causing severe wind damage and loss of life, a strong Zonda wind (Foehn) on the lee side of the Andes, and a prolonged heat wave. |
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2025 |
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2025-06 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
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article |
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publishedVersion |
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http://hdl.handle.net/11336/290754 De Elia, Ramon; Haiden, Thomas; Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana; Otero, Federico; Gascón, Estíbaliz ; et al.; Verification of global and regional NWP models over South America; European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts; European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting; 928; 6-2025; 1-40 1012-6899 CONICET Digital CONICET |
| url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/290754 |
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De Elia, Ramon; Haiden, Thomas; Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana; Otero, Federico; Gascón, Estíbaliz ; et al.; Verification of global and regional NWP models over South America; European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts; European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting; 928; 6-2025; 1-40 1012-6899 CONICET Digital CONICET |
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eng |
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eng |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/81664-verification-global-and-regional-nwp-models-over-south-america info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.21957/85fc99659c |
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European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts |
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European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
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dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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