Practical paths to risk-risk analysis of solar radiation modification

Autores
Felgenhauer, Tyler; Bala, Govindasamy; Borsuk, Mark E.; Camilloni, Ines Angela; Wiener, Jonathan B.; Xu, Jianhua
Año de publicación
2025
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Solar radiation modification (SRM) is increasingly discussed as a potential strategy—in addition to ongoing greenhouse gas emission reduction, carbon dioxide removal, and adaptation—for reducing climate change risks. SRM, in particular stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), could cool the earth, reducing many of the adverse impacts of rising global temperature; but it could also have unintended consequences both positive and negative, and both biophysical and societal. Because the potential benefits and harms of each SRM option are multiple and uncertain, they need to be analyzed using a comprehensive framework that compares the risks of courses of action that include SRM against those that do not, where the definition of risk captures both the severity and likelihood of impacts. Here we outline such a risk-risk framework for SRM with a specific application to SAI. Four practical steps are needed to perform a risk-risk analysis: (i) specify the candidate risk reduction action(s) to be analyzed, (ii) catalog all important potential benefits and harms of each candidate action, (iii) define the events that constitute the risks of harms and less-than-expected benefits, and estimate their likelihood, magnitude, timing, distribution, and other relevant dimensions, including uncertainty about these estimates, and (iv) compare the risks across different candidate risk reduction actions with the aim of informing decisions that reduce overall risk. We perform an initial cataloging, estimation, and comparison of important risks of a specified SAI deployment in comparison to a non-SAI scenario. We also suggest ways to overcome some key challenges to applying the risk-risk framework across a broad array of possible actions, impacts, and scenarios. We recommend an international assessment of SRM options and their risk-risk profiles.
Fil: Felgenhauer, Tyler. University of Duke; Estados Unidos
Fil: Bala, Govindasamy. Indian Institute Of Science; India
Fil: Borsuk, Mark E.. University of Duke; Estados Unidos
Fil: Camilloni, Ines Angela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Wiener, Jonathan B.. University of Duke; Estados Unidos
Fil: Xu, Jianhua. Peking University; China
Materia
CLIMATE CHANGE
SOLAR GEOENGINEERING
CLIMATE INTERVENTION
RISK ASSESSMENT
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/283037
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Practical paths to risk-risk analysis of solar radiation modificationFelgenhauer, TylerBala, GovindasamyBorsuk, Mark E.Camilloni, Ines AngelaWiener, Jonathan B.Xu, JianhuaCLIMATE CHANGESOLAR GEOENGINEERINGCLIMATE INTERVENTIONRISK ASSESSMENThttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Solar radiation modification (SRM) is increasingly discussed as a potential strategy—in addition to ongoing greenhouse gas emission reduction, carbon dioxide removal, and adaptation—for reducing climate change risks. SRM, in particular stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), could cool the earth, reducing many of the adverse impacts of rising global temperature; but it could also have unintended consequences both positive and negative, and both biophysical and societal. Because the potential benefits and harms of each SRM option are multiple and uncertain, they need to be analyzed using a comprehensive framework that compares the risks of courses of action that include SRM against those that do not, where the definition of risk captures both the severity and likelihood of impacts. Here we outline such a risk-risk framework for SRM with a specific application to SAI. Four practical steps are needed to perform a risk-risk analysis: (i) specify the candidate risk reduction action(s) to be analyzed, (ii) catalog all important potential benefits and harms of each candidate action, (iii) define the events that constitute the risks of harms and less-than-expected benefits, and estimate their likelihood, magnitude, timing, distribution, and other relevant dimensions, including uncertainty about these estimates, and (iv) compare the risks across different candidate risk reduction actions with the aim of informing decisions that reduce overall risk. We perform an initial cataloging, estimation, and comparison of important risks of a specified SAI deployment in comparison to a non-SAI scenario. We also suggest ways to overcome some key challenges to applying the risk-risk framework across a broad array of possible actions, impacts, and scenarios. We recommend an international assessment of SRM options and their risk-risk profiles.Fil: Felgenhauer, Tyler. University of Duke; Estados UnidosFil: Bala, Govindasamy. Indian Institute Of Science; IndiaFil: Borsuk, Mark E.. University of Duke; Estados UnidosFil: Camilloni, Ines Angela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Wiener, Jonathan B.. University of Duke; Estados UnidosFil: Xu, Jianhua. Peking University; ChinaOxford University Press2025-03info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/283037Felgenhauer, Tyler; Bala, Govindasamy; Borsuk, Mark E.; Camilloni, Ines Angela; Wiener, Jonathan B.; et al.; Practical paths to risk-risk analysis of solar radiation modification; Oxford University Press; Oxford Open Climate Change; 5; 1; 3-2025; 1-92634-4068CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/doi/10.1093/oxfclm/kgaf012/8089845info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1093/oxfclm/kgaf012info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2026-08-25T14:35:04Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/283037instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982026-08-25 14:35:05.29CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Practical paths to risk-risk analysis of solar radiation modification
title Practical paths to risk-risk analysis of solar radiation modification
spellingShingle Practical paths to risk-risk analysis of solar radiation modification
Felgenhauer, Tyler
CLIMATE CHANGE
SOLAR GEOENGINEERING
CLIMATE INTERVENTION
RISK ASSESSMENT
title_short Practical paths to risk-risk analysis of solar radiation modification
title_full Practical paths to risk-risk analysis of solar radiation modification
title_fullStr Practical paths to risk-risk analysis of solar radiation modification
title_full_unstemmed Practical paths to risk-risk analysis of solar radiation modification
title_sort Practical paths to risk-risk analysis of solar radiation modification
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Felgenhauer, Tyler
Bala, Govindasamy
Borsuk, Mark E.
Camilloni, Ines Angela
Wiener, Jonathan B.
Xu, Jianhua
author Felgenhauer, Tyler
author_facet Felgenhauer, Tyler
Bala, Govindasamy
Borsuk, Mark E.
Camilloni, Ines Angela
Wiener, Jonathan B.
Xu, Jianhua
author_role author
author2 Bala, Govindasamy
Borsuk, Mark E.
Camilloni, Ines Angela
Wiener, Jonathan B.
Xu, Jianhua
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv CLIMATE CHANGE
SOLAR GEOENGINEERING
CLIMATE INTERVENTION
RISK ASSESSMENT
topic CLIMATE CHANGE
SOLAR GEOENGINEERING
CLIMATE INTERVENTION
RISK ASSESSMENT
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Solar radiation modification (SRM) is increasingly discussed as a potential strategy—in addition to ongoing greenhouse gas emission reduction, carbon dioxide removal, and adaptation—for reducing climate change risks. SRM, in particular stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), could cool the earth, reducing many of the adverse impacts of rising global temperature; but it could also have unintended consequences both positive and negative, and both biophysical and societal. Because the potential benefits and harms of each SRM option are multiple and uncertain, they need to be analyzed using a comprehensive framework that compares the risks of courses of action that include SRM against those that do not, where the definition of risk captures both the severity and likelihood of impacts. Here we outline such a risk-risk framework for SRM with a specific application to SAI. Four practical steps are needed to perform a risk-risk analysis: (i) specify the candidate risk reduction action(s) to be analyzed, (ii) catalog all important potential benefits and harms of each candidate action, (iii) define the events that constitute the risks of harms and less-than-expected benefits, and estimate their likelihood, magnitude, timing, distribution, and other relevant dimensions, including uncertainty about these estimates, and (iv) compare the risks across different candidate risk reduction actions with the aim of informing decisions that reduce overall risk. We perform an initial cataloging, estimation, and comparison of important risks of a specified SAI deployment in comparison to a non-SAI scenario. We also suggest ways to overcome some key challenges to applying the risk-risk framework across a broad array of possible actions, impacts, and scenarios. We recommend an international assessment of SRM options and their risk-risk profiles.
Fil: Felgenhauer, Tyler. University of Duke; Estados Unidos
Fil: Bala, Govindasamy. Indian Institute Of Science; India
Fil: Borsuk, Mark E.. University of Duke; Estados Unidos
Fil: Camilloni, Ines Angela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Wiener, Jonathan B.. University of Duke; Estados Unidos
Fil: Xu, Jianhua. Peking University; China
description Solar radiation modification (SRM) is increasingly discussed as a potential strategy—in addition to ongoing greenhouse gas emission reduction, carbon dioxide removal, and adaptation—for reducing climate change risks. SRM, in particular stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), could cool the earth, reducing many of the adverse impacts of rising global temperature; but it could also have unintended consequences both positive and negative, and both biophysical and societal. Because the potential benefits and harms of each SRM option are multiple and uncertain, they need to be analyzed using a comprehensive framework that compares the risks of courses of action that include SRM against those that do not, where the definition of risk captures both the severity and likelihood of impacts. Here we outline such a risk-risk framework for SRM with a specific application to SAI. Four practical steps are needed to perform a risk-risk analysis: (i) specify the candidate risk reduction action(s) to be analyzed, (ii) catalog all important potential benefits and harms of each candidate action, (iii) define the events that constitute the risks of harms and less-than-expected benefits, and estimate their likelihood, magnitude, timing, distribution, and other relevant dimensions, including uncertainty about these estimates, and (iv) compare the risks across different candidate risk reduction actions with the aim of informing decisions that reduce overall risk. We perform an initial cataloging, estimation, and comparison of important risks of a specified SAI deployment in comparison to a non-SAI scenario. We also suggest ways to overcome some key challenges to applying the risk-risk framework across a broad array of possible actions, impacts, and scenarios. We recommend an international assessment of SRM options and their risk-risk profiles.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025-03
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/283037
Felgenhauer, Tyler; Bala, Govindasamy; Borsuk, Mark E.; Camilloni, Ines Angela; Wiener, Jonathan B.; et al.; Practical paths to risk-risk analysis of solar radiation modification; Oxford University Press; Oxford Open Climate Change; 5; 1; 3-2025; 1-9
2634-4068
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/283037
identifier_str_mv Felgenhauer, Tyler; Bala, Govindasamy; Borsuk, Mark E.; Camilloni, Ines Angela; Wiener, Jonathan B.; et al.; Practical paths to risk-risk analysis of solar radiation modification; Oxford University Press; Oxford Open Climate Change; 5; 1; 3-2025; 1-9
2634-4068
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/doi/10.1093/oxfclm/kgaf012/8089845
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1093/oxfclm/kgaf012
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Oxford University Press
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Oxford University Press
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.265058

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