Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics

Autores
Onofri, Milagros; Berniell, María Inés; Fernández, Raquel; Menduiña, María Azul
Año de publicación
2026
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
documento de trabajo
Estado
versión enviada
Descripción
This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research.
Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales
Materia
Ciencias Económicas
Demographic Change
Completed Fertility
Latin America
Childlessness
Parity
Fertility Decline
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Repositorio
SEDICI (UNLP)
Institución
Universidad Nacional de La Plata
OAI Identificador
oai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/192156
Acceder
id SEDICI_e11acc3b88399eee8d99dcab864d0473
oai_identifier_str oai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/192156
network_acronym_str SEDICI
repository_id_str 1329
network_name_str SEDICI (UNLP)
spelling Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort DynamicsOnofri, MilagrosBerniell, María InésFernández, RaquelMenduiña, María AzulCiencias EconómicasDemographic ChangeCompleted FertilityLatin AmericaChildlessnessParityFertility DeclineThis paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research.Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales2026-03info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperinfo:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersionDocumento de trabajohttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042info:ar-repo/semantics/documentoDeTrabajoapplication/pdfhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/192156enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.cedlas.econo.unlp.edu.ar/wp/no-368/info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1853-0168info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)instname:Universidad Nacional de La Platainstacron:UNLP2026-06-23T11:15:57Zoai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/192156Institucionalhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/Universidad públicaNo correspondehttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/oai/snrdalira@sedici.unlp.edu.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:13292026-06-23 11:15:57.899SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Platafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics
title Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics
spellingShingle Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics
Onofri, Milagros
Ciencias Económicas
Demographic Change
Completed Fertility
Latin America
Childlessness
Parity
Fertility Decline
title_short Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics
title_full Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics
title_fullStr Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics
title_full_unstemmed Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics
title_sort Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Onofri, Milagros
Berniell, María Inés
Fernández, Raquel
Menduiña, María Azul
author Onofri, Milagros
author_facet Onofri, Milagros
Berniell, María Inés
Fernández, Raquel
Menduiña, María Azul
author_role author
author2 Berniell, María Inés
Fernández, Raquel
Menduiña, María Azul
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Ciencias Económicas
Demographic Change
Completed Fertility
Latin America
Childlessness
Parity
Fertility Decline
topic Ciencias Económicas
Demographic Change
Completed Fertility
Latin America
Childlessness
Parity
Fertility Decline
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research.
Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales
description This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research.
publishDate 2026
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2026-03
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion
Documento de trabajo
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042
info:ar-repo/semantics/documentoDeTrabajo
format workingPaper
status_str submittedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/192156
url http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/192156
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.cedlas.econo.unlp.edu.ar/wp/no-368/
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1853-0168
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)
instname:Universidad Nacional de La Plata
instacron:UNLP
reponame_str SEDICI (UNLP)
collection SEDICI (UNLP)
instname_str Universidad Nacional de La Plata
instacron_str UNLP
institution UNLP
repository.name.fl_str_mv SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Plata
repository.mail.fl_str_mv alira@sedici.unlp.edu.ar
_version_ 1868982592560168960
score 13.24418

Publicaciones similares